With colleagues at PHE we have been using mathematical models and economic analyses to assess changes to the UK immunisation programme for many years. Recent examples include pneumococcal vaccines, chickenpox and shingles vaccines, rotavirus, HPV (the cause of cervical cancer), flu, meningococcal vaccines, and MMR. We are also working on the use of vaccines to prevent hospital-acquired infections such as Clostridium difficile
(C diff). The analyses go to inform the Department of Health and JCVI (the body that recommends vaccination policy in the UK).
We also use mathematical models to help inform vaccine policy in the developing world. Examples include the use of pneumococcal and Hib vaccine in complex emergencies (e.g. refugee camps), the role of vaccination to prevent typhoid fever, and the use of vaccines in the global polio eradication effort.
A number of members of cmmid sit on national and international immunisation committees, including JCVI subgroups, WHO’s SAGE subgroups, and WHO Euro’s vaccine advisory body (ETAGE).
- Jit M, Brisson M, Portnoy A, Hutubessy R. Cost-effectiveness of female human papillomavirus vaccination in 179 countries: a PRIME modelling study. Lancet Glob Health. 2014; Jul;2(7):e406-14.
- Christensen H, Trotter CL, Hickman M, Edmunds WJ. Re-evaluating cost effectiveness of universal meningitis vaccination (Bexsero) in England: modelling study. BMJ. 2014; Oct 9;349:g5725.
- Rozenbaum MH, van Hoek AJ, Fleming D, Trotter CL, Miller E, Edmunds WJ. Vaccination of risk groups in England using the 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine: economic analysis. BMJ. 2012; Oct 26;345:e6879.
- Flasche S, Edmunds WJ, Miller E, Goldblatt D, Robertson C, Choi YH. The impact of specific and non-specific immunity on the ecology of Streptococcus pneumoniae and the implications for vaccination. Proc Biol Sci. 2013; Oct 2;280(1771):20131939.
- van Hoek AJ, Melegaro A, Gay N, Bilcke J, Edmunds WJ. The cost-effectiveness of varicella and combined varicella and herpes zoster vaccination programmes in the United Kingdom. Vaccine. 2012; Feb 1;30(6):1225-34. Epub 2011 Nov 23.
- Melegaro A, Choi YH, George R, Edmunds WJ, Miller E, Gay NJ. Dynamic models of pneumococcal carriage and the impact of the Heptavalent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on invasive pneumococcal disease. BMC Infect Dis. 2010; Apr 8;10:90.
- Atchison C, Lopman B, Edmunds WJ. Modelling the seasonality of rotavirus disease and the impact of vaccination in England and Wales. Vaccine. 2010; Apr 19;28(18):3118-26.
- Choi YH, Jit M, Gay N, Cox A, Garnett GP, Edmunds WJ. Transmission dynamic modelling of the impact of human papillomavirus vaccination in the United Kingdom. Vaccine. 2010; May 28;28(24):4091-102.