Ebola outbreak in West Africa

Cases in Liberia

cmmid members are currently involved in providing real-time modelling of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, using a range of methods. To better understand the epidemiology of Ebola, we are also investigating previous outbreaks.

Situation reports and projections


Marc Baguelin, Anton Camacho, Rosalind Eggo, John Edmunds, Stefan Flasche, Sebastian Funk, Adam Kucharski, Conall Watson


  1. Camacho, A., Eggo, R.M., Funk, S., Watson, C.H., Kucharski, A.J., Edmunds, W.J. Estimating the probability of demonstrating vaccine efficacy in the declining Ebola epidemic: a Bayesian modelling approach. BMJ Open 5:e009346.
  2. Eggo, R.M., Watson, C.H., Camacho, A., Kucharski, A.J., Funk, S. and Edmunds, W.J. Duration of Ebola virus RNA persistence in semen of survivors: population-level estimates and projections. Eurosurveillance20(48):pii=30083.
  3. Rosello, A., Mossoko, M., Flasche, S., Van Hoek, A.J., Mbala, P., Camacho, A., Funk, S., Kucharski, A., Kebela Ilunga, B., Edmunds, W.J., Piot, P., Baguelin, M. and Muyembe Tamfum, J.J. Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 1976-2014. eLife 2015;4:e09015.
  4. Kucharski, A.J., Eggo, R.M., Watson, C.H., Camacho, A., Funk, S. and Edmunds, W.J. Effectiveness of Ring Vaccination as Control Strategy for Ebola Virus Disease. Emerging Infectious Diseases, in press.
  5. Kucharski, A.J., Camacho, A., Flasche, S., Glover, R.E., Edmunds, W.J. and Funk, S. Measuring the impact of Ebola control measures in Sierra Leone. PNAS. published ahead of print October 12, 2015, doi:10.1073/pnas.1508814112.
  6. Henao-Restrepo, A.M., Longini, I.M., Egger, M., Dean, N.E., Edmunds, W.J., Camacho, A., Carroll, M.W., Doumbia, M., Draguez, B., Duraffour, S., Enwere, G., Grais, R., Gunther, S., Hossmann, S., Kondé, M.K., Kone, S., Kuisma, E., Levine, M.M., Mandal, S., Norheim, G,. Riveros, X., Soumah, A., Trelle, S., Vicari, A.S., Watson, C.H., Kéïta, S., Kieny, M.P. and Røttingen, J.A. Efficacy and effectiveness of an rVSV-vectored vaccine expressing Ebola surface glycoprotein: interim results from the Guinea ring vaccination cluster-randomised trial. The Lancet. 2015 Aug 29;386(9996):857-66.
  7. Ebola ça Suffit Ring Vaccination Trial Consortium. The ring vaccination trial: a novel cluster randomised controlled trial design to evaluate vaccine efficacy and effectiveness during outbreaks, with special reference to Ebola. BMJ. 2015 Jul 27;351:h3740.
  8. Camacho, A., Kucharski, A., Aki-Sawyerr, Y., White, M.A., Flasche, S., Baguelin, M., Pollington, T., Carney, J.R., Glover, R., Smout, E., Tiffany, A., Edmunds, W.J. and Funk, S. Temporal Changes in Ebola Transmission in Sierra Leone and Implications for Control Requirements: a Real-time Modelling Study. PLoS Currents Feb 10, 1.
  9. Kucharski, A.J., Camacho, A., Checchi, F., Waldman, R., Grais, R.F., Cabrol, J.C., Briand, S., Baguelin, M., Flasche, S., Funk, S. and Edmunds, W.J. Evaluation of the Benefits and Risks of Introducing Ebola Community Care Centers, Sierra Leone. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2014; 21.
  10. Funk, S., Knight, G.M. and Jansen, V.A.A. Ebola: the power of behaviour change. Nature 2014; 515, 492.
  11. Whitty, C.J.M., Farrar, J., Ferguson, N., Edmunds, W.J., Piot, P., Leach, M. and Davies, S.C. Infectious disease: Tough choices to reduce Ebola transmission. Nature 2014; 515, 192–194.
  12. Piot, P., Muyembe, J.-J. and Edmunds, W.J. Ebola in west Africa: from disease outbreak to humanitarian crisis. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2014; 14(11),1034-1035.
  13. Maybe, D., Flasche, S. and Edmunds, W.J. Airport screening for Ebola. BMJ 2014; 349:g6202.
  14. Camacho, A., Kucharski, A. J., Funk. S., Breman, J., Piot, P. and Edmunds, W.J., Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease. Epidemics 2014; in press.
  15. Kucharski, A. J. and Edmunds, W. J., Case fatality rate for Ebola virus disease in west Africa. The Lancet 2014; 384(9950):1260.
  16. Funk, S. and Piot, P., Mapping Ebola in wild animals for better disease control. eLife 2014; 3:e04565.
  17. Kucharski, A. J. and Piot, P., Containing Ebola virus infection in West Africa. Eurosurveillance 2014; 19(36):pii=20899.

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