Vaccines are arguably one of the most effective public health tools. By preventing disease, vaccines reduce the number of untimely deaths and provide considerable improvements to human health, especially that of children. Vaccines are a very diverse tool in public health, and are used in routine childhood immunisations, in elimination and eradication programmes, rapidly deployed in terms of outbreak response, and have a promising role to play in addressing the rising problem of antimicrobial resistance.
By influencing the dynamics of infectious diseases, vaccines also influence ecology and evolution of pathogens. Ideally, vaccines are sterilising, blocking transmission. When vaccines reduce disease but do not prevent infection (leaky vaccines), transmission still occurs which could drive the evolution of more virulent pathogens. Vaccines influence the ecology of pathogens and by shaping the immunity landscape can drive changes in predominant strains.
Vaccine modelling is central at CMMID and it inevitably overlaps with other themes, such as Elimination and eradication, Evolutionary dynamics, Health economics and Real-time outbreak control. At CMMID various groups model vaccines at different levels and over different time frames – from optimal deployment of vaccines in an outbreak setting, to long-term use and changing disease dynamics in elimination settings; from local vaccine effectiveness to global impact of vaccination; from potential impact of universal influenza vaccines on dynamics of influenza to use of vaccines in the context of AMR.
In general terms, mathematical modellers and health economists at CMMID conduct applied epidemiological and economic research to inform public health decisions about vaccination.
- Optimising vaccination strategies for control and elimination of immunizing infections
- Epidemiological and economic impact of vaccination programmes
- Global and country-specific decisions about vaccination
- Inform potential future investments and vaccine scale-up opportunities
- Impact of vaccines on antimicrobial resistance
Modellers here work closely with a multidisciplinary group of researchers interested in vaccines, including epidemiologists, biostatisticians, social science researchers, computer scientists and clinicians.
Petra Klepac (theme co-ordinator), Kaja Abbas (theme co-ordinator), Mark Jit, Katherine Atkins, Rosalind Eggo, Albert Jan van Hoek, Stefan Flasche, Nick Davies, Kevin van Zandvoort, Diana Mendes, Moritz Wagner, Naomi Walker, James Munday, David Hodgson, Koh Jun Ong, Alicia Rosello, Artemis Koukounari, Frank Sandmann, Marc Baguelin, Andrew Clark, Sebastian Funk, John Edmunds, Yang Liu, Simon Procter, Billy Quilty, Arminder Deol